UNEXPLODED · public companion
How did the published estimate of remaining explosive material change from 1,700 tons to 1,400 tonnes and later 1,500 tons/TNT-equivalent formulations?
Contradiction record CON-0001 in the public UNEXPLODED archive.
Contradiction: How did the published estimate of remaining explosive material change from 1,700 tons to 1,400 tonnes and later 1,500 tons/TNT-equivalent formulations?
Position A
The June 1998 report says the remaining cargo represented about 1,700 tons of explosive material, excluding heavy casings.
Position B
DERA's visually inspected July 1997 original prints an exactly summing 1,400-tonne explosive-weight table; the 2003 survey later states approximately 1,500 tons without publishing another calculation.
Assessment
Open but narrowed. The recovered DERA report confirms the table and visible 1,068 M59 count but contains no worksheets, source inventory, conversion factors or uncertainty. A conditional OP 1664 reconstruction yields 1,441-1,469 metric tonnes, while 1,008 remains only a two-constraint analytical repair. The 1967 1,445 figure is compatible if imperial. Unit conversion and exposed fill/cluster choices still cannot close the 1,700-to-1,400 revision.
Status: open